NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks Week 17: Expert advice on favorites, upsets to consider in confidence pools, office pools

Time is running out for you to make up ground in NFL pick ’em pools, and if you’re still alive in your NFL survivor pool, then time can’t run out fast enough. Regardless of your situation, you have to be smart this week, which isn’t easy considering players are going on and off rosters at alarming rates. The experts from TeamRankings are here to help inform your Week 17 NFL picks with strategy tips and advice on five key games.

Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. Check out TeamRankings’ Football Pick ’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. TeamRankings also have Bowl Pick ’em picks if you are in a college football bowl pool.

Week 17 NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy

How We Identify NFL Week 17 Value Picks

This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 17 picks from your pool opponents.

It’s important to note that we’re not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that’s appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools, but if you find yourself trailing a leader with two weeks to go to get in the money, you may also need to increase the number of risks you take. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick ’em Picks product.

Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Point Spread: -3.0
Pick Popularity: 55%
Category: Value Favorite

The Browns and Steelers meet in an elimination game in the AFC North. The victor will keep its hopes of winning the division alive if the Bengals also lose to the Chiefs. The loser will be in trouble.

Cleveland has had its share of player absences and close calls recently, but it has played better than the Steelers this season. Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 in one-score games while Cleveland is just 4-6. Those differences make their overall records very similar.

But Cleveland is the road favorite here, and with the public nearly evenly split, stick with the Browns to gash the Steelers’ porous run D.

WEEK 17 NFL DFS: Best stacks | Best values | Lineup builder

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans

Point Spread: +3.0
Pick Popularity: 15%
Category: Value Upset Gamble

Ryan Tannehill will face off against his old team in a surprisingly key AFC matchup. The Titans are still alive to get the top seed in the conference, and the Dolphins moved into the final playoff spot with their Monday Night Football blowout of the Saints.

The Titans continue to get a lot of respect from the public, so the upset-minded Dolphins are coming at some big value here in weekly pools.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Point Spread: -5.5
Pick Popularity: 76%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price

The Chiefs aren’t a value favorite, but relative to some other picks, they are still worth slotting in here as a favorite play. The Rams, Titans, and Chargers all have similar win odds as Kansas City but higher popularity.

Stick with the Chiefs in this AFC showdown as they go for a ninth straight win against a Cincinnati team that is also playing well and drawing some public confidence in the upset.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. LA Rams

Point Spread: +3.5
Pick Popularity: 18%
Category: Value Upset Gamble

If you’re looking for another upset in addition to the Dolphins, consider the Ravens as an option. Baltimore should be a lot better off on offense if it gets QB Lamar Jackson back after two weeks off due to his ankle injury or backup QB Tyler Huntley returns from the reserve/COVID list.

The Ravens secondary is still an injury-riddled mess, which is why they’re a home underdog here against the Ram, but Baltimore is a well-coached team playing for its playoff life at home against a West Coast team, and it’s coming at low popularity right now.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team

Point Spread: -4.0
Pick Popularity: 73%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price

Similar to the Chiefs, the Eagles are a reasonably priced favorite when you consider how much of the public is picking other teams favored by just over a field goal. Philadelphia is catching a Washington team that appears to be in disarray. Meanwhile, the Eagles have won five of their past six games to pull into the final wild card spot in the NFC.

Stay with the Eagles in season-long pools and bump them up a bit in confidence value.

Week 17 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Most popular picks

There are only two weeks to go if you are still alive in survivor pools, and after the Chargers lost last week as the most popular pick, only a few entries are remaining for the money.

Here are the most popular picks so far for Week 17. 

• Seattle Seahawks (22% popularity) vs. Detroit Lions
• New England Patriots (19% popularity) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• San Francisco 49ers (18% popularity) vs. Houston Texans
• New Orleans Saints (5% popularity) vs. Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears (5% popularity) vs. New York Giants

You can check out our Week 17 pick analysis and get our customized pick recommendations if you are still competing in a survivor pool.

Get All Our Week 17 NFL Picks

Football Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.

From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick ’em pools. In short, to win a pick ’em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.

If you want to learn more about football pick ’em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick ’em pools. Good luck in your pools this week!