Premier League predictions: Arsenal to dent West Ham charge, says Jones Knows | Football News

December 15, 2021 admin

After nailing six winning betting angles out of nine – all at odds-against – last weekend, plus a 7/2 winning main bet, Jones Knows is back for the midweek action.

Brighton vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm

These two teams have scored just four goals between them since November 5, across nine fixtures, with Wolves failing to score in four of their last five matches and creating a combined expected goals total of just 2.55. A 0-0 has to be a runner here at 13/2 with Sky Bet.

A much better angle on offer relates to the amount of cards being shown though. Referee Tony Harrington takes charge of his first Premier League game here and if he follows the same pattern as fellow debutants at the top level, he will be a busy man with his cards.

The last six referees to take charge of a Premier League game for the first time average 5.1 yellow cards shown per 90 minutes. That is way above the average of 3.2 cards per 90 minutes in all Premier League matches in the last five years, with new referees keen to lay down the law.

Players are very aware of the referee’s inexperience at the top level. As seen with Michael Sailsbury’s debut in Palace vs Aston Villa, there were lots of occasions where he was surrounded and hounded to put pressure on his decision making. It resulted in six yellow cards being shown and an overturned red card for Douglas Luiz. The same was seen in Wolves vs Burnley where John Brooks took charge for the first time in the Premier League, showing five cards.

Both these teams are averaging around four cards in their matches this season, so the 50+ booking point angle at 5/4 looks a strong play, with the higher lines also worth a look.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

BETTING ANGLE: 50+ booking points (5/4 with Sky Bet)

Burnley vs Watford, Wednesday 7.30pm

Burnley owe me a result. The 1-0 defeat at Newcastle hurt my wallet as I had invested in Sean Dyche’s ability to win ‘six pointers’. Burnley are usually very hard to beat in those scenarios.

In the last three seasons in 29 games against teams that finished that season in the bottom five, Burnley have lost just four of those games, winning 16 at a healthy strike rate of 56 per cent. Two of those defeats can be excused, too, as a 4-2 reverse at Fulham came early in the season and the 1-0 loss at Sheffield United at the end of last season was very much a dead rubber. When it matters, Burnley can be relied upon to deliver in a relegation scrap.

Watford are brittle in key areas of the pitch – as seen in their collapse at Brentford on Friday. They have now gone 26 Premier League games without a clean sheet – and remain the only side in England’s top-four tiers this season yet to register a shut-out.

I’m all over the 11/10 for a home win and such was Nick Pope’s form in the draw with West Ham, the 11/4 for a Burnley win to nil also makes appeal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

BETTING ANGLE: Burnley to win to nil (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Crystal Palace vs Southampton, Wednesday 7.30pm

Southampton remain a very positive, attack-minded team whose style allows them to progress into dangerous areas of the pitch. Once there, a lack of quality is to blame for their poor conversion rate. That makes them hard to fancy in any traditional match outcome or goals markets, hence why I’d slightly favour Palace in this match-up. However, one area where they are very reliable is their ability to win corners due to that positive style of football under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

The adventurous nature of both their full-backs is helping to keep those numbers high to the extent that only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have won more corners than Saints this season (98).

Sky Bet have dangled the carrot of odds of 6/4 for Southampton to win six or more corners in this one – a price that is drenched in value. It’s a bet that would have copped in nine of the last 10 Southampton fixtures and one that is given further confidence by Palace’s average of 5.5 corners conceded per 90 minutes this season. In what should be an exciting game, full of tempo, I’m all over the Saints corner line.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Southampton to win six or more corners (6/4 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs West Ham, Wednesday 8pm

Arsenal are making The Emirates a fortress. I want to back them here at 23/20 with Sky Bet.

They have won eight of their last nine matches at home, winning the last four without conceding a goal. Thou shall not pass the axis of Aaron Ramsdale, Ben White and the impressive Gabriel.

Further back, they have won 10 of the last 12 home fixtures. Plus, that aforementioned axis has still yet to concede a goal before the 38th minute in any of their 13 games playing as a trio. It’s providing their team-mates a fine base to work from.

West Ham’s attack may struggle to break through. Since beating Liverpool, the Hammers have picked up just five points from the last 15 available, failing to beat Burnley and Brighton along the way.

One area of the pitch where West Ham will have an edge is in central midfield as Declan Rice’s form continues to impress. To my eye there isn’t an better all-round midfielder than him in the Premier League – he can do it all. He ranks second in the Premier League for distance carried with the ball this season (3804m) – only behind Allan Saint-Maximin.

I’m absolutely convinced he’s going to become even more of a force in the next few months. The more confident and experienced he becomes at driving into the final third, the more he’ll become overpriced in various shots and goals markets. I like the look of the 9/2 for him to have a shot on target from outside the area. He’s fired six shots on target in his last seven Premier League fixtures and went close with an off-target attempt in the draw with Burnley.

Arsenal should afford Rice plenty of space to work in, too. They are happy to defend a little deeper than most teams in the Premier League and no team has conceded more shots on target from outside the box this season (29). To expand on that further, since Mikel Arteta took over in December 2019, only Aston Villa, Newcastle and Crystal Palace have conceded more shots on target from outside the area (93).

Rice will be licking his lips. The 12/1 with Sky Bet for an Arsenal win and Rice to hit the target from outside the box is very chunky.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

BETTING ANGLE: Arsenal to win & Declan Rice to have a shot on target from outside the box (12/1 with Sky Bet)