Alex Hammond blog: Another big weekend for Paul Nicholls team at Warwick and Kempton? | Racing News

Sky Sports Racing presenter Alex Hammond is back with her weekly blog, looking ahead to the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton and Warwick’s Classic Chase.

Do you remember a few months ago when we thought it was never going to rain again? My home rain gauge is the most used item I own (apart from my wellies) and still it keeps raining. I’m not complaining though, unless I’m camping, I prefer the wet stuff to the stifling temperatures from the summer, and it’s now proper jumping weather.

There’s been plenty of moisture at Kempton in the build up to their Lanzarote Hurdle fixture on Saturday and it’s soft at the time of writing with up to 12mm more possible. It’s a similar story at Warwick which is heavy, soft in places, so the Classic Chase contenders will need to relish those specific conditions.

Let’s kick off with Kempton and the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, which is the only race that has attracted a double figure field. With seven declarations the maximum number in the other six races, that’s a little disappointing, although it’s not unusual on recent evidence on this card in the past.

The favourite is Green Glory at 4/1. He’s understandably short as he’s trained by Charles Byrnes in Ireland and will be ridden by his son Philip who claims 5lbs off the 10-8 he has been allotted. There will have been a number of horses aimed at this race from some way out and a similar number with a few pounds up their metaphorical sleeves.

Outlaw Peter makes his handicap debut for Paul Nicholls. West Balboa has finished second in a Grade 1 and has just her second outing in a handicap. There are several improving types to go along with those two.

Dubrovnik Harry is interesting reverting to hurdles after just one run over fences at Exeter last time out. This is his second start after a wind op and at 8/1 is on my shortlist.

Petit Tonnerre should have more to come for the Jonjo O’Neill-JP McManus combination. I doubt Harbour Lake has finished improving and should settle better in this type of race than he did last time out.

Cobblers Dream has to try and overcome a 10lbs higher mark if he’s to repeat his win in this last year. His two runs this season have come over fences but he won comfortably twelve months ago and can’t be discounted.

Hermes Boy has snuck in at the bottom of the weights for Jane Williams but you feel he should have won more than one race in his ten race career; maybe this will be his day in the sun.

Scarface at 14/1 could be one to finish in the first seven. Joe Tizzard has sent him out to win both starts this season in novice company and he was highly tried last season, so they clearly think plenty of him. He’s only rated 126 and I’ll be astonished if he’s not up to winning something off that mark.

There may be no Shishkin in the Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase as he’s having a short break after a minor wind problem was highlighted in training last week, but there are some intriguing runners, none more so than long time absentee Angels Breath.

Now nine years of age, he has his first start for Sam Thomas more than three years since suffering what could have been, and sounded like, a career ending injury.

He suffered a bad cut on the back of a front leg on his tendon when winning his second chase at Ascot, and having witnessed this sort of injury first hand, it can be extremely serious.

Infection can get into the site and that is as bad as it gets for a racehorse. Even without the life-threatening aspect, it is often career-ending. So, the fact he has made it back is wonderful.

The fact he is also starting out in this Grade 2 is another positive. Sam Thomas has already proven himself with horses from big yards and let’s hope this horse shows that he retains his ability.

I won’t win any prizes for suggesting this is a watching brief as he is sure to be sharper for the run and you never know how much ability they retain until push comes to shove.

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls may be on holiday, but he’ll be hoping Pic D’Orhy can win in his absence. The horse is Sky Bet’s 5/4 favourite having won his last two, including the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last time out.

He’s been a slow burner this lad but seems to be fulfilling expectations this season.

Paint The Dream offers a bit more value at 5/2, for a team back amongst the winners. His trainer Fergal O’Brien was the fastest to reach 100 for the campaign but then had a relatively quiet spell for a week or two.

However, they appear to be back firing on all cylinders again and this horse can run well providing the ground isn’t heavy. Looking at the forecast that is a rather big “if”.

Saint Calvados is a talented individual but was far too keen and fresh on his reappearance run at Ascot. He was ridden by owner David Maxwell that day and his rider will be hoping that exuberance is out of the way on his second run of the season. The two-runner field didn’t help that day either as he wasn’t able to get any cover, so Saturday’s contest should suit him better.

He will wear a hood for the first time too which should help him settle. This horse has run well in two King George’s at this track and at 11/2 he appeals. I know his rider isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but that is factored into the price on offer and if the horse is good enough, he will be too.

Angels Breath isn’t the only horse Sam Thomas will be hoping can sparkle after a break. His Welsh National winner Iwilldoit returns to the track for the first time since his Chepstow triumph thirteen months ago in the Warwick Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase.

Thomas prepared the horse to win the Welsh National Trial on his first start last term, so he should be fit and firing.

Bookies are running scared of the Irish trained horse in the Lanzarote, and they’ll be on high alert with Mr Incredible, who has been sent over by Willie Mullins for this race.

He’s Sky Bets’ 4/1 favourite, which is a touch off-putting in a race of this nature, despite his lightly raced profile, it’s not been a kind race for favourite backers over the years either.

The horse that appeals to me on that score is Fortescue at 16/1. He’s versatile ground wise and stays well. He’s also a sound jumper, so has the key qualities required for a race like this. He needs to bounce back from a below par run in the Welsh National last time out, but you can forgive him that and his trainer, Henry Daly, is in good form.