49ers vs. Packers odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL divisional playoff game

The San Francisco face the Green Bay Packers in the NFC divisional playoffs on Saturday

Game time is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisc. The game will be televised and streamed on FOX and FOX Deportes.

The 49ers were the lone underdog to win on wild-card weekend, and they are a dangerous proposition for the Packers. Green Bay needed a last-second field goal from Mason Crosby for a 30-28 victory against San Francisco on Sept. 26.

San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is trying to lead another Super Bowl run with coach Kyle Shanahan, and the Niners will test Green Bay with a pair of playmakers who had more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage in Eli Mitchell and Deebo Samuel. Tight end George Kittle also is a mismatch in the middle of the field. San Francisco does have a few key injuries on defense worth watching this week. 

Green Bay is trying to return to the NFC championship game for the third straight year. Aaron Rodgers is the favorite to win a third NFL MVP award, and favorite target Davante Adams is a problem for the 49ers. The Packers also had a bye week to rest, and a few playmakers who missed time during the regular season could return. 

It’s a classic NFC blue-blood matchup with implications that could spill into next season. Here’s everything to know about betting on 49ers vs. Packers in the 2022 NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the divisional playoff matchup:

DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up

49ers vs. Packers odds for NFL playoff game

• Spread: Packers -5.5
• Over/under: 47.5
• Moneyline: Packers -255, 49ers +210

The Packers opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and that has pushed up to as much as -6 at some sportsbooks. The 49ers were 7-3 S/U and 6-4 ATS on the road this season, however. This line could bump slightly down before kickoff.  

(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)

49ers vs. Packers all-time series

Green Bay leads the all-time series 38-32-1. The Packers and 49ers are meeting in the postseason for the ninth time, and the teams are knotted at 4-4 in those games. Here is a look at the previous playoff matchups and their implications in the NFC. 

Three trends to know

—Green Bay was 8-0 S/U and 7-1 ATS at Lambeau Field this season, and they are 24-3 S/U and 19-8 ATS at home under third-year coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay did beat NFC West teams Seattle and Los Angeles in the divisional round at home the last two seasons.  

—San Francisco has played the role of road warrior well this season, too. The 49ers are 7-3 S/U and 6-4 ATS on the road this season, and they are 3-0 ATS and 3-0 S/U as an underdog in 2021. 

—The 49ers were 4-5 S/U in games that were decided by seven points or less. The Packers were 5-3 S/U in the same situation. San Francisco was a 3.5-point favorite in the regular-season meeting. 

Three things to watch

Rodgers to Adams 

The 49ers did not have an answer for Adams in the regular-season matchup. He had 12 catches for 132 yards and a TD, and he made the catch that set up the game-winning field goal. Rodgers likely will look to set the tone with his favorite receiver, and San Francisco could be without two key pieces in Nick Bosa (concussion protocol) and linebacker Fred Warner (ankle). Look for Rodgers to target Adams on the perimeter early, but it will not be long before that first deep shot against the 49ers’ secondary. 

Who runs the ball? 

Of course, Green Bay needs to have a steady running game between Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. That won’t be easy against a San Francisco defense that allowed more than 100 rushing yards rushing in just one of its last 10 games. The 49ers, meanwhile, will look to control the clock around Jimmy Garoppolo with Mitchell and Samuel, who has emerged as one of the most-exciting dual threat players in the game. Mitchell, who has been a huge difference maker, was not in the lineup in the first meeting. Green Bay needs to maintain a push on defense with Kenny Clark, and the Packers’ defense is on the spot here.  

Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder 

Garoppolo suffered a shoulder injury in the wild card victory against the Cowboys, and his future with the 49ers remains tenuous. He did lead the go-ahead drive in the regular-season matchup with the Packers, and he had success attacking the middle of the field with Kittle and Samuel. Those are mismatches for the Packers’ secondary, and the solution for Green Bay defensive coordinator Joe Barry is simple. Turn up the blitz pressure. The Packers might get Za’Darius Smith back for this game, and he could factor in on third-and-long situations. If the pressure lands, then the turnovers will follow. 

Stat that matters

We are not talking about the actual weather, though the forecast calls for what could be a low of two degrees on Saturday night. Green Bay was able to build comfortable first-half leads in its last two divisional playoff games. The Packers led the Rams 19-10 at halftime last season and the Seahawks 21-3 in 2019. Green Bay also jumped out to a 17-0 lead on San Francisco in the regular-season meeting and led 24-14 in the second half. The 49ers cannot let the Packers build an early cushion at home this time. 

49ers vs. Packers prediction 

Rodgers will hear all week about the 0-3 postseason record against the 49ers, and there will be flashbacks to the 2019 NFC championship game loss. San Francisco had 285 rushing yards in that game, and Garoppolo threw just eight passes. It’s a little different on the road, even if the cold conditions could help San Francisco a little bit. Green Bay, however, follows the same formula that has made them tough to beat at home. Rodgers controls the offense. The Packers settle for field goals in the first half, but a TD pass to Adams and a productive running game make the difference. Garoppolo is forced into too many third-and-longs, and a late turnover seals Green Bay’s third straight trip to the NFC championship game. 

Final score: Packers 31, 49ers 24