Grand National Festival: Simon Rowlands shares his tips for day two as Fakir D’Oudairies returns to defend Marsh Chase | Racing News

April 7, 2022 admin

Top tipster Simon Rowlands has three each-way selections for day two of the Grand National Festival at Aintree, including a big-priced pick in the feature, the Marsh Chase.

Each-way betting sometimes gets a bad press, though only by those who do not understand it fully. Some see it as half-hearted – “I don’t really expect this to win but can’t let it go completely unbacked” – and throwaway comments from many in the media feed into this.

But there can be sound mathematical reasons to back horses each-way, rather than win-only, and sound other reasons, too: such as that a given horse’s chance of placing is better than as simply derived from its win odds.

Just over a quarter of my recommendations over the near-four-years of this column have been each-way, and all three this time are. In two of the three cases, it is mathematically better to back each-way than win-only, and in the other it is mathematically about the same.

The Marsh [formerly Melling] Chase (3.30) is a 10-runner affair in which the betting is rightly dominated by last year’s winner Fakir D’Oudairies. He is well suited by conditions and comes here fresh after ducking a mismatch with Allaho at Cheltenham.

Then again, he was not exactly impressive when beating Two For Gold at Ascot last time, a penalty kick in which he looked like “doing a Diana Ross” (one for the oldies) for a short while. He is not unbeatable on that form, though it still may, just about, be good enough.

There are doubts about several of his rivals here, however, especially in terms of the two-and-a-half-mile trip, which may be beyond some on ground that is a bit more testing than I had anticipated judged on the early times on Thursday (though more so on the hurdle than the chase course).

That does not apply to Paint The Dream, whose easy handicap win at Newbury on his latest start was accompanied by a good time and some smart sectionals (especially mid-race), but which looks to have gone under-appreciated.

The Fergal O’Brien-trained gelding thrashed Tamaroc du Mathan and Senior Citizen – both of whom have live chances in the Topham Handicap (4.05) – by 15 lengths that day and was able to coast for much of the run-in. On figures, it suggests he has every chance of mixing it in this company, with conditions to suit.

Captain Guinness, Editeur du Gite, Funambule Sivola and Sceau Royal all look vulnerable at this longer trip, and getting placed might not be as difficult as it first appears. I would have Paint The Dream around 9/1.

Aintree’s Friday card starts with an 18-runner handicap hurdle (1.45) – a good each-way medium providing there is not a rash of withdrawals – in which I expect Speech Bubble to out-run her odds.

She won well at Newbury in January then ran into one in the form of subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner Love Envoi in a Grade Two at Sandown, nonetheless ahead of useful rivals in finishing quite a close second.

Speech Bubble did not quite get home that day, on heavy ground and with a punishing finish, and Aintree on soft could bring about still more improvement. I would have her around 6/1 in this company.

Fahey’s Surprise Package can deliver another good showing

Jonbon has an obvious chance in the Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (2.20), with no Constitution Hill to face this time, but he looks plenty short enough at around evens for one who rather lives on his nerves and comes here on the back of a drubbing.

Surprise Package also ran at the Cheltenham Festival, coming sixth to State Man in the County Handicap but looking like finishing much closer (went as low as 100/30 in running) until emptying on the run-in.

That came just six days after he had lagged up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown, and the signs are that he is decidedly useful, regardless of the fact that he had been doing the rounds with little to show for it for much of this season.

There is a bit of the Belfast Banter about him, that gelding a County winner before following up in this race 12 months ago. Surprise Package would be no bigger than 7/1 on my figures.

There is a truly enthralling Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase in store (2.55). The four runners include two brilliant novices in Bravemansgame and L’Homme Presse, with the former perhaps with a fraction more potential than the latter at this staying trip.

There is nothing in it at the odds at the time of writing, so this is a race I am happy to watch rather than bet on.

The betting also looks about right to me in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (4.40), a slightly disappointing affair on paper for a Grade One.

Banbridge sets a decent standard with his Martin Pipe win at Cheltenham last time but goes into unknown territory regarding trip and may have less potential than one or two with a few more pounds to find at this stage.