Lewis Hamilton: Is frustrating 2022 down to bad luck, or has George Russell been faster at Mercedes?

With just one podium in seven races and concerning points deficits to his young Mercedes team-mate and the championship leader, Lewis Hamilton is enduring his worst start to a Formula 1 season in over a decade.

But has Hamilton really been that far off the pace in 2022?

Has bad luck – which Hamilton says he has been “having all year” and which has led to Mercedes boss Toto Wolff insisting the “pendulum will swing” for his star driver – exaggerated the issues and pressure?

Here, we delve into the races so far, Hamilton vs George Russell and look at the reasons behind a difficult start…

Bahrain GP

Hamilton: Qualified 5th, Finished 3rd
Russell: Qualified 9th, Finished 4th

Analysis: In a much-anticipated first head to head as Mercedes team-mates in qualifying, Hamilton and Russell were relatively evenly matched until Q3 – when the tables turned. Hamilton finished a second ahead of Russell, who rued a set-up change in the final shootout.

In the race, Hamilton and Russell – after coming through the pack – were running a steady fifth and sixth with their rivals much faster, until not one but two Red Bull DNFs. That led to Hamilton claiming an unlikely podium.

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Red Bull’s Sergio Perez spins off on the final lap to gift Lewis Hamilton a spot on the podium!

Verdict: While Mercedes’ early deficit to Ferrari and Red Bull was clear, it was a positive start to the season for Hamilton.

His qualifying lap, just a few tenths off Sergio Perez’s Red Bull, would have been difficult to beat by Russell even without his issues, while he had a big advantage in the race before the Safety Car. Better weekend: Hamilton.

Saudi Arabian GP

Hamilton: Qualified 16th, Finished 10th
Russell: Qualified 6th, Finished 5th

Analysis: Qualifying in Jeddah provided an almighty shock as Hamilton, who was faster than Russell in all three practice sessions, was knocked out in Q1. Hamilton blamed late set-up changes for the dreadful one-lap pace, with Russell 0.7s quicker in Q1 before delivering the W13 to its rightful place of fifth on the grid.

It was a fine recovery in the race from Hamilton as he got back up to sixth but a Virtual Safety Car then led to pit-stop confusion, with Hamilton telling his team it was “too late” to stop. He came in soon after, but that dropped him to 12th and only managed to score a single point.

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Anthony Davidson compares Hamilton’s Q1 lap with team-mate George Russell’s, following the seven-time world champion’s shock exit

Verdict: Set-up changes or not, it was a woeful qualifying for Hamilton. The race, with the same set-up, was a lot better and he appeared to have a slight edge over Russell in clear air.

Then came his first ‘bad luck’ of the season with the VSC as he thought a stricken McLaren blocked the pit-lane, before it closed. Without that, Hamilton could probably have finished sixth. Better weekend: Russell.

Australian GP

Hamilton: Qualified 5th, Finished 4th
Russell: Qualified 6th, Finished 3rd

Analysis: Hamilton, albeit disappointed not to get closer to the front, was a tenth faster than Russell in qualifying and was comfortably ahead of his team-mate in the race, with the Mercs running fourth and fifth.

But Hamilton pitted first and then Russell was aided by a perfectly-timed Safety Car, grabbing a ‘free’ stop which got him ahead of Hamilton. He then inherited third place after Verstappen’s DNF, while Hamilton gained back on Russell before he said overheating issues stopped him attacking.

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Sergio Perez overtakes Hamilton into third place of the Australian GP

Verdict: Hamilton drove the faster silver car all weekend and was only denied what would have been a deserved podium by the Safety Car timing. Better weekend: Hamilton.

Emilia Romagna GP

Hamilton: Qualified 13th, Sprint 13th, Finished 14th
Russell: Qualified 11th, Sprint 11th, Finished 4th

Analysis: Mercedes had their least competitive weekend of the season in Imola, but Russell outqualified Hamilton by a tenth before both cars held position in 2022’s first Sprint.

In the race, Russell gained five places on the first lap thanks to a stonking start and a collision, while he then passed Kevin Magnussen, held off Valtteri Bottas and profited from Charles Leclerc’s error to take a superb fourth. Hamilton, on the other hand, did not start well and was then stuck in a frustrating train all race, before dropping more places in the pit-stops.

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Russell breaks late and overtakes Kevin Magnussen to move into fifth place of the Emilia-Romagna GP

Verdict: The 10-place difference in the race is certainly not reflective of their speed in the car – with Russell in clear air and Hamilton not – but Russell was rightly rewarded for his fine getaway while Hamilton and Mercedes should have gambled more with their wet-to-dry tyre stop.

This was the first weekend you could say Russell had truly outpaced Hamilton fair and square from start to finish. Better weekend: Russell.

Miami GP

Hamilton: Qualified 6th, Finished 6th
Russell: Qualified 12th, Finished 5th

Analysis: Russell was fastest in Friday practice but then had a shock poor qualifying, knocked out in Q2. Hamilton was 0.4s ahead in that segment, but he was beaten in Q3 by Bottas in the Alfa Romeo.

Hamilton was running sixth for the majority of the race before his first stop, while Russell had moved up to fifth – but had not stopped – before a Virtual Safety Car. That gave him the chance to pit for fresh tyres but he only dropped just behind Hamilton. The pair overtook Bottas before they had their first feisty wheel-to-wheel battle of 2022, with Russell eventually getting ahead of Hamilton at the second time of asking.

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Russell says Mercedes are still trying to ‘unlock performance’ but enjoyed his battle with Hamilton to finish fifth

Verdict: Neither Mercedes driver had a particularly brilliant Miami debut but Hamilton would certainly have finished ahead of Russell if not for the timing of the VSC. Hamilton was a sitting duck on his worn tyres at the end. Better weekend: Hamilton.

Spanish GP

Hamilton: Qualified 6th, Finished 5th
Russell: Qualified 4th, Finished 3rd

Analysis: Russell was faster than Hamilton in all three qualifying segments and beat his team-mate by a tenth in the decisive Q3, while he even beat the Red Bull of Perez.

Hamilton picked up a puncture from contact on the first lap and dropped right to the back – even asking Mercedes to retire the car. He was glad they did not as he had storming pace from there and recovered to fourth, before Merc reliability concerns saw him give the place back to Sainz. Russell managed his pace extremely well and was even leading the race after Leclerc’s DNF, superbly defending from eventual winner Verstappen.

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Russell somehow held off Max Verstappen in a battle for second place at the Spanish Grand Prix

Verdict: While Hamilton actually had better lap times on the Sunday, this was certainly Russell’s weekend… and probably his most impressive of the season. He qualified well and then managed his race to a well-deserved podium, with Mercedes hailing car improvements. Better weekend: Russell.

Monaco GP

Hamilton: Qualified 8th, Finished 8th
Russell: Qualified 6th, Finished 5th

Analysis: The Mercs were evenly matched heading into Q3 in qualifying, but Russell held a 0.4s advantage after the first laps as Hamilton was in the wrong engine mode, while red flags on the last laps cemented those positions.

Hamilton was stuck in his position in the dramatic race, first behind the Alpine of Esteban Ocon – who was handed a penalty for his aggressive defending – and then the wily Fernando Alonso. Russell was able to gain a position on the narrow streets, overtaking Lando Norris on his worn-in slicks.

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Hamilton and Esteban Ocon come together at Sainte Devote as the Mercedes driver tries to overtake

Verdict: Not a great weekend for Mercedes after the encouragement of Barcelona but you would have to give Russell the edge, with his three-place margin basically dictated by the first laps of Q3. It was tough to compare their race pace given Hamilton was never in clear air. Better weekend: Russell.

Final verdict from 2022’s seven races

So, we have it scored 4-3 to Russell on who had better weekends, and that is also how the qualifying head-to-heads currently stand in the younger Briton’s favour.

Given that, it is safe to say Russell’s 34-point lead over Hamilton in the championship is not reflective of their actual speed in the car.

That is of course taking nothing away from Russell. The former Williams driver has delivered well above expectations and he deserves immense credit for even being close to Hamilton, let alone outperforming him so far this season – which he has done.

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Juan Pablo Montoya says Russell can beat Hamilton over one lap but he has a lot to learn from his Mercedes team-mate over race pace

But Hamilton likewise does not deserve to have finished behind Russell in every race since the Bahrain season-opener, with Australia and Miami particular unlucky weekends for the seven-time champion.

He does, though, need a pick-up in form after being outperformed him in Spain and Monaco, with Russell seemingly happier in a hard-to-drive Mercedes car right now.

How this partnership and possibly even rivalry develops over the rest of the season – particularly if Mercedes get closer to the front – will be intriguing to watch, starting at this weekend’s Azerbaijan GP live on Sky Sports F1.