Are Leicester the forgotten team in the Premier League? Jones Knows says back them for a top-six finish | Football News

Are Leicester the forgotten team in the Premier League? With Wesley Fofana fit and an improving young squad, Jones Knows is jumping on the Foxes bandwagon.

2pts on Leicester to finish in the top-six (6/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Being able to legitimately forgive a downturn in performance using logical reasoning is a key trait of unearthing value in the betting markets across all sports. It’s mostly used in horse racing where being able to find a piece of evidence to forgive a horse a bad run can usually put a punter on to a way of beating the market.

Leicester City finished a disappointing eighth in the Premier League last season, picking up 52 points. It was a 12-point underachievement on what we had seen from Brendan Rodgers’ side in the two previous seasons.

Is this the start of the decline under Rodgers? At various points last season there were a few murmurings of discontent regarding his position – something that quietened down towards a relatively strong finish to the campaign where they made the Europa Conference League semi-finals and won three of their last four Premier League games, scoring 13 goals in the process.

Those wins over the final stretch against Norwich, Watford and Southampton – and the 1-1 draw with Chelsea – were more like the Leicester of the previous two and half seasons since Rodgers was appointed in February 2019. So, can we excuse them for such mediocrity for the majority of last season?

There certainly are valid excuses. Key defensive injuries cost them the opportunity to play Wesley Fofana and Jonny Evans together as a partnership last season. That was massive.

The duo played/started together just six times in the Premier League in 2021/22, conceding just seven goals when both of them were on the pitch.

If you took out Ruben Dias and Aymeric Laporte from Manchester City or Virgil van Dijk from Liverpool you’d see an overall downturn in performance level over a period of time, so Leicester being unable to play without their first-choice base does strike me as a genuine excuse for underperformance.

Having a fully-fit Fofana ready to go from the first whistle next season is an exciting prospect. To my eye, he’s the best young centre-back in world football. No wonder Chelsea are toying with the idea of paying £80m for him.

Sometimes it’s best to listen to those with greater qualifications when it comes to studying and analysing football though. And, Rodgers has not been afraid to go big when asked about the potential of Fofana.

Speaking to my colleague Adam Bate towards the end of last season, the Foxes boss said: “Any team would miss him. He is an absolutely phenomenal talent, this young man. He is going to be an absolute elite player.”

After suffering a horrendous fibula fracture during a pre-season friendly against Villarreal, Fofana only returned to first-team action towards the end of March. It’s no coincidence that Leicester’s goals conceded-per-90 minutes dropped from 1.6 to 1.0 in the 12 games across all competitions when Fofana was named in the starting XI.

The Foxes also only lost one of their seven Premier League games with Fofana in the side, including avoiding defeat in away games at Chelsea and Manchester United.

When Rodgers’ teams are at their best is when they defend aggressively and high up the pitch. He likes his defenders to step forward, anticipate and therefore that helps his team sustain attacks.

Fofana is one of the best in the Premier League at such a task. Only Liam Cooper and Jan Bednarek average more interceptions-per-90 of defenders to have played over 2,000 minutes since the start of last season in the Premier League than Fofana (2.27).

He also ranks first for recoveries in the Premier League of centre-backs to have played over 2,000 minutes (6.97 per-90). That metric is defined by when a player recovers the ball in a situation where neither team has possession or where the ball has been played directly to him by an opponent, thus securing possession for their team. All great pressing teams rank high in this department.

If Fofana and Evans can stay fit, I’d expect Leicester to be posting points hauls next season much closer to their 64 average achieved under Rodgers in his two full seasons in charge, especially without the distraction of European football that did stretch the squad to its limits at times last year.

World Cup – a chance to refresh?

A World Cup being sandwiched in the middle of the season also does give Leicester a bit of an advantage over their rivals for a top-half finish.

Whilst other clubs will be reluctantly sending their players to the other side of the world to play football in the most pressurised and emotionally draining tournament you can undertake as a professional, Leicester, despite having huge talent with their ranks, look likely to be keeping many of their key players at home.

Fofana has yet to be capped by France, although that may not last much longer, while Northern Ireland skipper Evans will be watching the tournament from his sofa.

Nigeria have failed to qualify for their first World Cup since 2006 so Kelechi Iheanacho and Wilfred Ndidi won’t be called upon. Patson Daka’s Zambia failed to qualify, too.

And the likes of Harvey Barnes, James Maddison, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and James Justin are all on the fringes of England selection and are far from guaranteed to make the plane whilst Jamie Vardy is retired from international duty. At this stage, only Timothy Castagne and Youri Tielemans are certainties to be playing in Qatar.

This could mean a huge crop of Leicester’s key men will have over a month off to recharge the batteries, go on holiday and return in a mindset like the season will be starting all over again. That could prove a massive advantage over the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United who at this stage will have at least 10 key players jetting off to play in Qatar.

Remember, in both of those successful campaigns under Rodgers Leicester only just missed out on Champions League qualification due to some late wobbles when the finishing line approached. There was an FA Cup trophy, to boot. There was even talk of the Foxes entering calculations of redefining the term ‘big six’ to a ‘big seven’ such were their consistent performances towards the top end of the Premier League.

That is backed up by the raw numbers. Since Rodgers was appointed, Leicester have taken the seventh highest amount of points in the Premier League, just two points fewer than Arsenal, five fewer than Tottenham and nine fewer than Manchester United.

Leicester have scored more goals in that period than the three aforementioned teams, meaning only Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City have netted more than Leicester’s return of 216.

With the same manager in place for this season, no real huge overhaul within the squad and a crop of very talented younger players like Maddison, Justin, Barnes, Dewsbury-Hall and Fofana only getting better with experience, I’m flabbergasted at how the market has priced Leicester.

The odds available make out that Leicester are the 10th-best team in the Premier League. That has resulted in an absolutely monstrous 5/6 with Sky Bet there waiting to be snapped up on them finishing in the top 10. That is worth snapping up for those that can handle a long-term investment at short prices. But the price that really is ripe for a good bet is the 6/1 on Leicester finishing in the top six.

Quite how and why Aston Villa are favoured to finish ahead of them is a bit of a mystery, while I’d be very apprehensive of West Ham being able to kick on once again without significant investment in their squad in forward areas with another busy season of European football to contend with.

Then you have the unknown of Newcastle, who are being priced up on their financial muscle.

Leicester have been there, got the points in the bag and finished in the top six under this manager twice in the last three seasons.

And if the 5/6 or 6/1 investment really isn’t for you, then perhaps tying your money up long-term on Leicester finishing in the top-four at 18/1 is a betting tactic to consider. And hey, it’s not 5,000/1, but in what could be a strange, fatigue-led season, the 200/1 on Leicester winning the Premier League isn’t the most far-fetched of theories.

They have, of course, won more Premier League titles in the last seven years than Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham combined.

Underrate them at your peril.

Super 6: Round 1 fixtures – PLAY FOR FREE!

• Tottenham vs Southampton
• Leeds vs Wolves
• Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
• Everton vs Chelsea
• Manchester Utd vs Brighton
• West Ham vs Manchester City

Six correct predictions is all it takes. You could be ending your weekend as a millionaire with Super 6. Play for free, entries close Saturday August 6, 3pm.