T20 World Cup permutations: How can England progress from Group 1 and reach the semi-finals? | Cricket News

England’s anticipated T20 World Cup clash with Australia was abandoned due to bad weather in Melbourne, but what does that mean for their hopes of reaching the semi-finals?

Defeat for either side at the MCG would have severely dented their hopes of progressing from the Super 12s, although the no-result leaves Group 1 wide open with two full rounds of group fixtures remaining.

England move to second in the group based on their superior net run rate and Australia also sit on three points, with Ireland in between them in the standings on the same total after their game against Afghanistan was also rained off.

Despite a share of the spoils against Australia, the scenario for England has stayed pretty much the same: win every game from here on and they could – and perhaps should – reach the last four.

Victories over New Zealand in Brisbane on Tuesday and then Sri Lanka in Sydney on Bonfire Night would take Jos Buttler’s side to seven points in Group 1, while Australia will reach the same total if they beat the two perceived weakest teams in the pool – Ireland in Brisbane on Monday and Afghanistan in Adelaide next Friday.

The hosts’ net run rate took a battering when they crashed to an 89-run defeat to New Zealand in their opening encounter at the Sydney Cricket Ground, leaving them at the inferior -1.555 compared to England’s current run rate of +0.239.

“The result has done Australia and England neither harm nor favour,” Sky Sports’ Michael Atherton said. “You could conceivably have three teams on seven points and net run rate being critical.

“Australia will think that, even in this World Cup where you can’t count your chickens, that they have two games they would expect to win and could possibly bump up their net run rate. England’s tougher games are backloaded, with New Zealand and Sri Lanka to come.

What if England don’t win both matches?

Although run rate could prove vital in determining the two semi-finalists in the group, it only becomes a factor if teams finish level on both points and number of wins. Should a team have same number of points as a rival in one of the qualifying positions having won more matches, then they will progress regardless of their run rate.

Buttler’s side have run rate in their favour but they have the trickier fixtures on paper compared to their Ashes rivals, as they face group leaders and 2021 runners-up New Zealand and an improving Sri Lanka – led by former England coach Chris Silverwood.

Australia could overhaul England on net run rate with victories in their remaining two matches, while another way of boosting their hopes of progressing might come via their Trans-Tasman rivals New Zealand doing them a favour and beating Buttler’s outfit on Tuesday.

“First and foremost you have got to try and win the game,” Australia captain Aaron Finch said ahead of their remaining group fixtures. “I think you earn the right to get yourself into a position to push for net run rate if the game pans out.

“You can never underestimate Ireland or Afghanistan as they have some world-class players. We will be as ready as we can be and control what we can.”

Who else can still qualify?

The rain-offs in Melbourne have left the group delicately poised, with New Zealand – who play on Saturday – heading things on three points, ahead of England, Australia and Ireland on run rate.

Sri Lanka, who thrashed Ireland in their group opener before losing to Australia on Tuesday, are in fifth spot but can jump top of the standings with victory over the Kiwis in Sydney.

Ireland have never beaten Australia or New Zealand in any format but will likely need to beat both to have any chance of progressing to the semi-finals for the first time, while Afghanistan occupy bottom spot after two rained-off matches and a defeat in their first three games.

Only the top two teams from the group qualify for the next round, with the winners of Group 1 taking on the side finishing second in Group 2 in Sydney on November 9 ahead of the other semi-final in Adelaide the following day.

Watch the T20 World Cup live in full on Sky Sports between now and the final on November 13.