Premier League predictions: Jones Knows thinks Newcastle will edge past Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park | Football News

It’s another captivating weekend of Premier League action and fresh from a glut of winning tips how does Jones Knows see it all unfolding?

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Newcastle are heading towards the Champions League. It’s no fluke either when you look at their underlying data that assesses the dirtier side of the game, most notably defending and being a threat from set pieces.

They are the best in the Premier League at both.

Newcastle have now kept eight clean sheets in their last 10 Premier League games, conceding just two goals. And boy are they a threat from set pieces. Eddie Howe’s side have fired 106 shots from set piece situations to a backdrop of an expected goals figure of 10.09 – the best returns of any team across both metrics. It’s therefore a huge underperformance to have only merited six goals from such situations this season – six teams have scored more.

I’d side with them finding a way past Crystal Palace, who are yet to win against a current top half team this season, in a low scoring clash. Those looking for a betting angle in should invest in Dan Burn’s shots and goals odds on offer. Palace have shipped the most expected goals from set pieces of any team in the Premier League this season (8.08) so have been very fortunate to conceded just four goals.

Also, in the reverse meeting between these two at St James’ Park, Newcastle created a whopping 2.08 expected goals from set pieces in that 0-0. The most any team has created this season in a single game and only bettered by Manchester City’s haul of 2.56 against Norwich when assessing all Premier League games since the start of last season.

Burn had a shot in just 11 minutes on the pitch in that clash with Palace and managed a shot in the 1-0 win for the Toon over Patrick Vieira’s team in April. He goes up for every set piece with his average touches in the opposition box bringing in a healthy return of 1.43 per-90 over a 36-game sample size with his shots per-90 data coming in at 0.6.

This all equates to the 13/8 with Sky Bet available on him having one or more shots being very appealing. He is 40/1 with Sky Bet to score first, too – something that landed in Newcastle’s Carabao Cup win over Leicester where he actually scored from open play with a rampaging run from left-back.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Manchester City vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm

Wolves were a team going nowhere fast under Bruno Lage but now have positive momentum under Julen Lopetegui. Once their defensive process started to crumble a few months ago Lage had no answers but it has been revitalised by the Spanish boss.

Well-organised, low block defences don’t come tighter than Wolves, who could be set to send Pep Guardiola’s frustration levels off the scale in this one. Last season this Wolves side only lost the aggregate score 10-8 when playing teams that finished in the top-nine away from home and to my eye Lopetegui has got them back to playing at that defensive level. That included a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City, where they played for half the match with 10-men and were only undone by a late penalty.

With City still not quite purring or finding the right balance in attack, the 11/8 with Sky Bet on Wolves starting with a +2 goal handicap is worth considering meaning the bet will land if they win, draw or lose by one goal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Leeds vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Thomas Frank is a manager worth listening to. He says Leeds are better than their current league position suggests.

That then insinuates that probabilities of them winning football matches are being undervalued in the betting markets.

The underlying attacking numbers for Leeds across their last four games back that view up and are seriously impressive, racking up an average expected goals total of 11.83, averaging out at 2.8 per match, spearheaded by the excellent Wilfred Gnonto, who has sent the fanbase wild with a string of exciting performances.

On the back of what was a fantastic attacking performance at Aston Villa and in midweek against Cardiff, they look tempting to follow at 13/10 with Sky Bet to beat Frank’s Brentford albeit with the caveat of defensive mishaps potentially restricting their ability to see the job through.

I’d expect them to be creating and conceding chances to Brentford whose games have averaged 10.2 shots on target this season. I’d expect this clash to hit that sort of number – and most probably more.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 10 or more shots on target in the match (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Arsenal vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Goals look on the menu in what should be a game to savour in the prime time TV slot. These two are the most in-form teams in the Premier League, both taking 16 points each from their last six games. Both attacks are firing and are producing patterns of play that are devilishly hard to defend against.

The Gunners have scored 32 goals in their last 11 Premier League home games, scoring two or more goals in 10 of those last 11 fixtures whilst United have scored in 16 of their last 17 Premier League matches and looked improved in the final third with Wout Weghorst leading the line against Crystal Palace where they were unfortunate to draw. His ability to bring other attackers into the game adds to United’s armoury.

Both teams to score at 8/13 with Sky Bet has been well-supported but in order to boost that price, taking the Evens on both teams to score and the game producing over 2.5 goals looks a smart way to get lots of likely correct scores on your side in a game Arsenal may just edge.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Fulham vs Tottenham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Antonio Conte’s men carry such an air of vulnerability courtesy of a shaky backline in front of an even shakier goalkeeper – but boy do they carry an attacking threat, especially with Dejan Kulusevski back from injury. This is going to lend itself to goal-heavy matches if they remain playing in the same vein.

In what should be a game that threatens the over 2.5 goals line at 8/11, both goalkeepers are likely to be kept very busy, so a way to back a more lucrative price than just for over goals is to look at the total shots on target market.

Both these teams are known for seeing plenty of on-target action in their matches with their total match shot on target average ranking Tottenham (10.2) second and Fulham (9.8) fourth this season in the Premier League. Looking at the last 15 combined Premier League fixtures for both sides, it has seen 10 or more shots on target in the game land on 12 occasions. That makes the 10/11 with Sky Bet for it happen again a tempter for those looking to get involved.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2