Premier League best bets: Dominic Solanke backed for goal frenzy vs Tottenham | Football News
Sound the alarm, our tipster is advising backing a 200/1 shot this weekend – one of a cluster of big price selections across the Premier League card.
How did we get on last weekend?
Not a lot to shout about. Having invested one point on Brighton to finish top four at 9/2, to see them do much of what was expected in terms of performance level against Tottenham but still manage to lose was a real blow for their chances. The 15/2 treble went down in the first leg during the lunchtime kick-off where Everton managed 15 shots at Old Trafford but not one of them came from Michael Keane.
And, my theory of Frank Lampard’s appointment helping Chelsea to find their attacking groove looks a sackable offence based on their blank against Wolves. The over 3.5 goals leg at Molineux went up in smoke and although West Ham did win to nil at 7/2 to land one half of the 18/1 double, it was another point down the drain.
P+L = +37.5
1pt on Dominic Solanke to score vs Tottenham (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!), 0.5pt on Solanke to score two or more (40/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & 0.5pt on Solanke to score a hat-trick (200/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
There are some fancy prices knocking around on striker Dominic Solanke for Bournemouth at Tottenham.
Since November, Solanke’s attacking metrics in front of goal in terms of expected goals – the quality of chances dropping his way – have him ranked as eighth in the entire league with a per-90 return of 0.42. That’s 0.03 more than Harry Kane.
However, Solanke has only found the net twice in that period, underperforming according to the metrics by nearly four goals. To label him a wasteful finisher though is way off the mark as to score 29 goals in a Championship season tells me he has the minerals to finish big chances. I’m hoping the floodgates open.
And while Bournemouth remain in flowing mood in the final third, Solanke’s goalscorer prices are soaked in value. You can get 12/1 with Sky Bet on him opening the scoring and 4/1 on him scoring in the match. I’d even go as far to say that the 40/1 for a brace and the 200/1 for a hat-trick are also wildly overpriced.
0.5pt on Sven Botman to score first vs Aston Villa (50/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!), 0.5pt on Dan Burn to score first vs Villa (50/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & 0.5pt on Fabian Schar to score first vs Villa (33/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Newcastle lead the metrics for shots (156) and expected goals (15.5) created from set-pieces this season in the Premier League yet have only scored nine goals via that method – six teams have scored more. I’d expect that goals record to become more aligned with the expected goals data over the next few weeks, and Villa are quite forthcoming at shipping chances from corners and free-kicks.
Only Bournemouth (17) have shipped more goals via that method than Villa’s tally of 12 this season and in their last nine games they have allowed 4.19 worth of expected goals on their goal from set pieces – the third worst return in the Premier League over that time. That makes Sven Botman (50/1 with Sky Bet), Dan Burn (50/1) and Fabian Schar (33/1) all runners in the first goalscorer market.
2pts treble on: both teams to score in Man City vs Leicester, under 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd and Leeds to draw or win vs Liverpool (13/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
I’m quite strong on all three of these selections in the prediction column, so it makes sense to attack them as a treble.
