Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL ‘Thursday Night Football’

When the Chiefs (9-4) travel to the Chargers (8-5) to open NFL Week 15 on “Thursday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video), late control of first place in the AFC West will be on the line.

Should the Chiefs win, they would hold a two-game lead with a third consecutive division victory and get close wrapping up another title. Should the Chargers win, the teams would have identical records but Los Angeles would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of a season sweep.

The Broncos and Raiders fell flat with their big shots at the Chiefs, but those games were in Kansas City. The Chargers have the biggest game so far for rookie coach Brandon Staley and second-year QB Justin Herbert. 

Will that combination get the better of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes again?

Here’s everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Chargers in Week 15, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Thursday Night Football.”

Chiefs vs. Chargers odds for Thursday Night Football

• Spread: Chiefs by 3
• Over/under: 52
• Moneyine: Chiefs -158, Chargers +134

The line has hovered around a field goal going into the game as the COVID-19 issues don’t affect the quarterbacks with equal starting concerns on both sides. The Chargers don’t really have any home-field edge so the Chiefs would have been favored by near a TD at home.

(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chiefs vs. Chargers all-time series

The Chiefs lead their long-time rivals 64-58-1. The Chargers have won two consecutive games, however, including 30-24 in Kansas City earlier this season. They also won in Week 17 of 2020 when the Chiefs were resting players at Arrowhead. The Chargers have failed to beat the Chiefs in Los Angeles since they moved there, losing 23-20 in overtime last season.

Three trends to know

—78 percent of spread bettors are siding with the Chargers to cool off the Chiefs with the electric Herbert at home and at least keep it closer than a field goal, if not win outright.

—60 percent of over/under bettors are not fazed by the established high point total involving the two potent offenses and are taking the over.

—The Chiefs are 6-4 against the spread and 8-2 straight up in their past 10 games. The total has gone over four times. The Chargers are only 5-5 ATS despite going 6-4 SU in their past 10 games. Six of those games have gone over.

Three things to watch

The Chargers’ injuries

The Chargers look like they will have running back Austin Ekeler (ankle), wide receiver Mike Williams (heel), tight end Jared Cook (quad) and safety Derwin James Jr. (hamstring) playing through their ailments. Although wide receiver Keenan Allen was activated off the COVID-19 list, standout rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater landed on it and can be a big loss against a revved up Chiefs’ pass rush.

The Chiefs without Chris Jones

Jones is the Chiefs’ best and most disruptive player with his dominance in the inside pass rush. He has seven sacks and is rolling back in his natural position. The problem is, he landed on the COVID-19 list, and is a bigger blow than the Chargers being without Slater on the outside. The Chiefs need to find a way to get into Herbert’s face via different players, led by Derrick Nnadi.

Mahomes vs. Herbert

The two AFC West young guns have met only three times. No matchup has been bigger. They should be dueling for big things in the division for many seasons to come. The QB who makes enough big plays but avoids the big mistake — which has been an issue at times for either — will emerge victorious. Sit back and enjoy the fun between two dynamic playmakers in a final-possession game.

Stats that matter

140.7 and 4.7. That’s how many average rushing yards per game the Chargers give up plus the average yards per carry yielded. Only the Texans are worse per game and only the Steelers are worse per carry. The Chiefs have been rolling well with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore. That trio ran over the Raiders and produced four TDs in the Week 14 route.

Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction

The Chiefs will win this game with the defense and running game taking a lot of pressure off Mahomes to try to win a shootout vs. Herbert. The Chiefs will be more patient to sustain long drives, settling Mahomes and keeping the ball away from Herbert. They can preserve the win with a big sack or takeaway late.

Chiefs 30, Chargers 27